Prediction market update: Polymarket partners with MLB; Arizona files criminal charges against Kalshi

(AsiaGameHub) –   With the 2026 Major League Baseball season’s Opening Day nearing, Polymarket secured a landmark commercial agreement with the league this week.

Polymarket revealed on Thursday that it has partnered with MLB, becoming the league’s sole prediction market exchange partner. This move places MLB alongside the NHL, MLS, and UFC as North American sports leagues that have established commercial ties with prediction markets. MLB Commissioner Rob Manfred had previously informed team owners about a potential deal with such an exchange last month.

“Our foremost priority is, and always will be, safeguarding the integrity of the game,” Manfred stated.

While engaged in a dispute with multiple state regulators, the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission has declared it holds sole authority to regulate sports event contracts. CFTC Chairman Michael Selig has repeatedly emphasized the need to foster integrity in derivative markets since his confirmation.

Prior to the partnership announcement, MLB and the CFTC entered into a Memorandum of Understanding on Wednesday. This agreement creates a structure for the two entities to consult, collaborate, and share information on mutual interests, such as preserving the integrity of professional baseball and prediction markets, according to a CFTC statement.

“This partnership equips the CFTC with more resources to shield our markets from fraud, manipulation, and other misconduct. We appreciate MLB and Commissioner Manfred for collaborating with us to ensure the integrity of these expanding markets,” Selig posted on X.

Arizona files criminal charges vs Kalshi

Kalshi has encountered a surge of lawsuits in U.S. state and federal courts in recent months. However, an indictment made public this week in Arizona established a new precedent.

Arizona Attorney General Kris Mayes brought criminal charges against KalshiEx LLC and Kalshi Trading LLC on Tuesday for running an unlicensed gambling operation in the state. The 20-count indictment, comprising solely misdemeanors, marks the first instance of Kalshi facing criminal charges in the United States.

The charges include four counts related to election betting, covering wagers on the 2028 U.S. presidential election, the 2026 Arizona gubernatorial race, the 2026 Arizona Republican gubernatorial primary, and the 2026 Arizona secretary of state race. Arizona statute forbids operating a betting business without a license and also explicitly prohibits wagering on elections.

“While Kalshi may call itself a ‘prediction market,’ it is effectively conducting an illegal gambling enterprise and accepting bets on Arizona elections, actions that both break Arizona law,” Mayes stated. “No company can choose which laws it wishes to obey.”

Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour denounced the charges, posting on X: “The Arizona attorney general’s allegations are unfounded and a definite overstep. This is political maneuvering by a candidate seeking re-election.”

In unrelated news, a Bloomberg report on Thursday indicated that Kalshi secured over $1 billion in a new funding round, valuing the company at $22 billion. This figure is twice the $11 billion valuation the exchange attained in December.

Kalshi $1 billion tournament challenge

In 2014, renowned investor Warren Buffett presented a nearly unattainable challenge: a $1 billion prize for anyone who could accurately predict all 63 games in the NCAA tournament.

Now, over ten years later, Kalshi is reviving this contest. Considering the frequent upsets during March Madness, the chances of a perfect bracket are a staggering 1 in 120 billion. Despite the odds, Kalshi is offering the same prize to any customer who achieves this unlikely accomplishment.

During Thursday’s opening round, 16th-seeded Siena came close to defeating top-seeded Duke in an East subregional game. Siena, the MAAC tournament champion, began with a 1% win probability on Kalshi. The Saints shot well early, building a 33-22 first-half lead and an 11-point advantage at halftime. Siena’s odds peaked at 23% in the second half.

Duke responded with an 11-0 run early in the second half to narrow the gap to two points. The Blue Devils limited Siena to 22 points after halftime, securing a 71-65 victory. This comeback preserved the brackets of many Kalshi users. Duke is the most popular pick among users to win the tournament, followed by Arizona, Michigan, and Houston.

Roughly 37.3% of all participants selected the Blue Devils to claim the championship. As of 1:30 p.m. ET, Kalshi reported 83 perfect brackets still active in the challenge. The promotion is financially supported by SIG Parametrics, LLC, a member of the Susquehanna International Group of Companies, according to Kalshi.